What’s the best play in the special election in Georgia’s 6th district?

For those who don’t know me, I am a special election junkie. In case you need proof, I drove from Hartford to Buffalo (400 miles one way) and spent four days with Kathy Hochul as she won a congressional seat in 2011. 

In the Trump era, special elections are more important than ever. The only thing that will scare Congressional Republicans into acting responsibly is for the fear of defeat. And a special election is on the horizon in the Georgia 6^th. The seat is being vacated by Congressman Price to become HHS secretary. The district saw one of the largest swings toward Democrats from 2012 to 2016, handing Donald Trump a one-point margin of victory 48% to 47%. That’s down from Romney’s 24-point margin in 2012. So this is a seat that Democrats can win in a special election but it is also historically quite Republican.

And there’s an interesting wrinkle in how the election will be held that is being missed. This Georgia election is being held using the California and Washington system whereby the two candidates who receive the most votes regardless of party advance to the runoff, barring a candidate receiving 50%. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/02/georgia-special-house-election-still-gops-race-to-lose.html

Filing for this election closed Wednesday, and 11 Republicans, 5 Democrats and 2 Independent candidates have signed up for the race. In theory, a candidate could receive 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff all together, but in a candidate field this big that almost never happens. There is no reason to think that it will this time. 

The first round is being held on April 18^th, and the runoff will be held on June 20^th. Although Democrats seem to be banking on the strategy of winning the race in the June 20^th runoff, it seems to this humble observer that winning both spots in the runoff is a better play, though they are of course not mutually exclusive.

Even if there is an anti-Trump sentiment in the district, we are stilling looking at a 60% to 40% split with Republican candidates taking 60% in the first round and Democrats getting 40%. If the 11 Republicans split their vote evenly, and the five Democrats split their vote evenly, Democrats take the top two in a walk. That is not likely to happen. 

The initial take seems to be that the Republican have three strong candidates (Karen Handel, Judson Hill and Dan Moody). It also seems likely there are more votes in the Republican second tier (Bob Gray, Amy Kramer, Bruce Levell) than for the comparable Democratic also rans. This leaves Democrats with a quandary. 

Thanks to support from Congressmen John Lewis and Hank Johnson, as well as the Netroots’ community, the leading Democratic candidate is former congressional staffer and filmmaker Jon Ossoff. At the moment, he is best positioned to win a run-off. But it is the second best running Democratic candidate, former Democratic State Senator Ron Slotin who interests me now.  The other three Democrats who declared seem to be also rans, but Slotin at least on paper looks like he might be able to put on a credible campaign. It is unclear why he was passed over by Atlanta Democrats, but regardless, if he can put together a solid campaign then a Republican split could allow Democrats to win both spots in the runoff and take the seat on April 18^t. This means shifting resources to boost Slotin and away from Ossoff, who likely has enough money to make the runoff spot now. (If he doesn’t, than the odds of winning the runoff would be low anyway). 

If there are locals on the ground who could convince me otherwise, I am happy to hear from them. But it seems more likely we can take advantage of an 11 –to-5 candidate spilt and a 3-to-2 split in serious candidates than it is to get 50% in a runoff. It seems like we need to build up Ron Slotin.