Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Don’t believe a poll conducted before an event occurs.

The President signed an executive order Friday temporarily barring refugees and residents of seven countries from entering the United States. This action has led many people to be detained, spurred protests at major airports, and prompted multiple court rulings barring its enforcement.

Into this maelstrom comes a poll asking people what they would think about just such an order and finding the response to be widely positive. http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/316914-poll-over-half-back-trumps-refugee-ban. The huge catch: the poll was conducted before the order was actually signed.

It is exceptionally important that this poll be given absolutely no credence. The court orders, the protests, the political statements, and the extensive media coverage of all this, has gone a long way to shape and reshape how Americans see this matter.  Finding out  something as simple as, almost all Democrats oppose this order, will take Democrats who supported it in the poll and turn them against it  because they want to follow what the party thinks. Stories of particular people barred under this order can change minds radically.

Ideas that may sound good in theory collapse when put into practice all the time, and as the collapse occurs and is witnessed so does the public support for the idea.

This ridiculous poll serves as a good reminder to always check the dates on a poll when trying to measure what it is telling you and to ignore it if conducted before the event occurred. 

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