Last week’s revelations make it more difficult to come to any conclusion other than that the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians to win the 2016 election. Although there is still much more to learn about exactly what was involved and how high up it goes, the fundamental question has changed. We should no longer be asking, why do the Trumps do what they do? Instead, we need to ask, what if anything will be done to stop them?
Although some have argued previously that Republicans’ refusal to do anything about Trump stems from a desire to see their particular policies put into place, that no longer holds up. The current reality is that keeping Trump as President is entirely about political calculus and nothing more. The deeper you dig into this problem, the more that becomes exceptionally clear.
At this very moment, Republicans in the House could begin an investigation leading to impeachment proceedings related to obstruction of justice in the firing of James Comey. Obstruction was the charge on which President Clinton was impeached without any accompanying criminal charges. The whole process could be concluded in about a month fairly easily. Were this to take place, unified Republican control of the government would not be affected at all. Mike Pence would become President. If anything, the Republican agenda would be easier, not harder to pass, without Trump’s delay, distractions and confusions.
This is before we even consider how much more might come out about Trump and Russia. Senator McCain, who is not winning any courage awards but is doing well with one-liners, talks about the scandal like a centipede with many shoes still to drop.
The vast majority of Congressional Republicans understand this is a calamity. Certainly, there are 30 or so House members and 19 Senators who do – the number needed to join with Democrats to end him.
These people now have the power to end this nightmare. So what is stopping them? There is only one logical answer, and it has been the same answer since Trump came onto the political scene.
When Trump emerged in 2011 as a right-wing Republican talking about Birtherism, Republicans by and large decided to let it go for two reasons: one, they thought he was doing some damage to then President Obama and two, they worried about what would happen if he turned his fire on them.
This was Romney’s strategy in accepting Trump’s endorsement in Vegas into 2012 1https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmwzGMmGcJw: Sure, Romney kept Trump at arms distance from then on, but the damage was done. Trump was in the Republican tent.
In 2015, when Trump launched his Presidential campaign by calling Mexicans rapists, Ted Cruz said that he thought Donald Trump was terrific, rather than casting him out of the party, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/06/30/ted-cruz-donald-trump-is-terrific-shouldnt-apologize-for-comments/?utm_term=.507830a4c0d4.
Donald Trump’s threat to run as an independent induced all Republican candidates to unite in a pledge to support him should he win. Not everyone kept this pledge, but it still provided Trump incredible leeway to say whatever he wanted. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/09/donald_trump_s_loyalty_pledge_to_the_republican_party_how_the_real_estate.html His extremism was accepted.
By the time Trump transgressed our constitutional norms with his Muslim ban http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/donald-trump-muslim-ban-immigration/index.html, the Party was already yoked to him. Things did get nastier in the primaries but, in the end, Donald Trump was victorious, receiving more than 14,000,000 votes.
Republicans were stuck. If Trump were abandoned, those 14,000,000 people would be enraged. Republicans needed every one of them to win. If Trump was supported too enthusiastically, Republicans risked alienating too many upscale voters and losing anyway. They accepted him and tried to have it both ways: being supportive and then being a bit distant and then being supportive. Then he won, and Republican leaders have stuck with him despite his multitudes of controversies while in office because: a) they know enough of their voters love him, beginning with the primary; b) they have propagandized the voters who initially weren’t so enamored to like him even if they know better; c.) they understand he tapped into a group of voters they couldn’t easily reach. In the 2016 exit polls, Republicans were viewed favorably by 40% of the electorate and unfavorably by 55% of electorate, but Trump was able to win 20% of those who held unfavorable opinions of the Republican party.
That amounts to a relatively massive 14 million votes. Those voters probably overlap somewhat with the 14 million people who voted for Trump in the primary. The Trump base,therefore is probably in the neighborhood of 20 million people more or less. There is very little that can be done to pry them loose. Exit polls also suggest that roughly 12 million people voted for Trump despite having an unfavorable opinion of him. The three groups of voters, Trump Base Republicans, Trump People who don’t like the Republican Party and Trump voters who disapproved of Trump all matter.
So Donald Trump commands somewhere around 20 million voters who are loyal to him. Estimates suggest at last 5,000,000 and as many as 10,000,000 who are more loyal to him than to the Republican Party. It is the fear of these people’s reaction and only the fear of their reaction that is keeping Donald Trump as President. The parties are so evenly divided that the Republican Party does not feel it can afford to alienate these voters at any cost. It is this political calculus above all else that enables Donald Trump to cling to power.
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